How to Assess Value: From Intuition to a Research Methodology

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1. What is assessed

The value of an action is treated as an interpreted contribution to the move from the current state to the desired one, taking into account alternatives, costs, risk and uncertainty. The subject may be a person, a group or an organisation. So a correct assessment always answers the questions: for whom, against which goal, over which horizon, and compared with what?

It is important to distinguish expected value before the action, perceived value at the moment of assessment, and realized value after the result is observed. These quantities can differ. A preference is not an error in itself, but a belief about the consequences of an action can be checked.

2. Start from the target state, not from scores

The first step is to describe the desired state through observable signs. The "why?" method helps to move from a means to a more fundamental goal. Then success criteria, the time horizon, constraints and acceptable trade-offs are set. It helps to write down separately: "what I want", "why I want it", "by which signs I will know I have achieved it" and "what could change my mind".

For example, buying a house may be a means to stable living, autonomy and a sense of security. But a flat, renting or another legal status must be assessed as alternative ways to reach the same states, not as inferior options by default.

3. Check causal links and alternatives

For each action a short chain is built: action → expected changes → goal criteria → resulting contribution. Necessary conditions must be told apart from desirable ones, direct effects from indirect ones, and side effects must be taken into account. The counterfactual question "what happens if we do not do this?" reveals the real additional contribution. The second question, "which other path gives the same result?", reduces the risk of becoming attached to one solution.

4. Psychology and biases

Assessment is affected by the endowment effect, confirmation bias, anchoring, loss aversion, availability of examples, social norms and adaptation to the outcome. Especially dangerous is replacing the goal with a familiar means: "property always means security". A check should include opposing arguments, an independent alternative, separate assessment of probabilities and preferences, and for important decisions an outside view as well.

It helps to separate three questions: what matters to me? (preference), what will actually happen? (forecast) and why do I think so? (grounds of the belief). Psychological self-checking must not turn into imposing the "right" goals.

5. One methodology, four modes of use

Express, 30-60 seconds. For whom? Which goal? What will change? Is there a better option? Result: "low / medium / high" value with a short rationale and a level of confidence.

Comparative, 5-15 minutes. Formulate 2-5 alternatives and 3-5 criteria, compare them in pairs or sort them into relative categories. Result: priorities, not false precision.

Structured, from an hour. Define goals, criterion weights, expected consequences, costs, risks and scenarios explicitly. Apply sensitivity analysis: does the choice change when weights and assumptions change within reason?

Research, as the task requires. Refine operational definitions, collect independent assessments and actual outcomes, check reliability, consistency, calibration of forecasts and reproducibility of results.

6. Collective assessment

Affinity estimation, the bucket system, planning poker and pairwise comparisons are useful for reaching agreement faster. However, agreement among participants does not prove that an assessment is true. Participants first assess independently, then discuss differences and their grounds, and only then record the shared result and the range of uncertainty. It should be recorded separately whose goals the collective assessment reflects and how conflicts of interest were resolved.

7. Scales, scores and the limits of precision

For simple tasks an ordinal scale is enough: A is more valuable than B. Numerical scores are acceptable if the meaning of zero, reference points, comparison rules and the scope of use are defined. A difference of 20 points does not automatically mean "twice as valuable". A weighted sum of criteria can be a convenient model of choice, but its result depends on the chosen scales and weights; comparing the assessments of different people without agreeing on interpretations is incorrect.

8. A practical assessment protocol

Decision card: the subject and the stakeholders; the current and desired states; signs of achievement; the horizon; the action under consideration; alternatives, including doing nothing; expected changes; resources and constraints; key risks; psychological assumptions; comparative assessment; confidence; date of the follow-up check.

After the action, the forecast is compared with the observation. The error may lie in the description of the goal, in the causal model, in the preference weights or in the execution. This feedback is what turns an assessment method into a tool that learns.

9. The institute's research programme

Promising directions: a library of reference cases for different fields; measuring inter-expert agreement; studying how robust assessments are to wording and biases; comparing quick and deep modes; developing ways to reconcile individual scales without erasing differences of interest; validating forecast value against observed outcomes.

The main principle: the depth of the method must match the cost of an error. The institute's task is not to produce a universal magic number, but to offer a clear, verifiable path from goals and assumptions to a well-grounded choice.

Theoretical foundations and literature

• Locke, E. A., Latham, G. P. (2002). Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation. American Psychologist, 57(9), 705-717. DOI: 10.1037/0003-066X.57.9.705.
• Deci, E. L., Ryan, R. M. (2000). The "what" and "why" of goal pursuits. Psychological Inquiry, 11(4), 227-268. DOI: 10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01.
• Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. DOI: 10.2307/1914185.
• Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking. Harvard University Press.
• Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill.
• Von Winterfeldt, D., Edwards, W. (1986). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press.

Status: a conceptual methodological note. The proposed scheme needs further empirical testing; it is not claimed to be a validated universal scale of value.